Northern Ireland’s economic pulse: calm stats, storm clouds

Pay is rising. Output is growing. In a world still dealing with the aftershocks of Covid and inflation, and the ongoing fallout from war and geopolitical upheaval, it would be tempting to say we’re doing alright. But if you‘ve come to read my usual upbeat view of the world, I’m going to disappoint.

Take the labour market. The unemployment rate sits at 1.5% — lower than at any point in the past decade. Wages are up too: median monthly pay now stands at £2,359, an 8.8% rise over the year, or £191. These are the kind of numbers that would normally signal a strong economy.

But there’s a fragility in the economy that these headlines are masking. Economic inactivity has risen again. Nearly 28% of working-age adults are not in the labour market. That’s one in four people of working age not working or actively seeking work. And it’s not improving. After making solid progress to bring the unemployment level down since later 2021, it has been inching in the wrong direction over the past 12 months. A year ago the figure was 25.6%. Another concern is the decline in the total number of weekly hours worked in NI. In the first three months of this year, we clocked up 29 million hours of work, a decrease of 4.3% on the previous quarter.

So, while the headlines say “jobs market strong”, the underlying signal is that something’s not quite clicking. Long-term illness, caring responsibilities and a lack of affordable childcare solutions, skills gaps, transport issues — the causes are known, but the fixes rarely seem to come or are either too slow or too piecemeal. This matters not just for individuals, but for business. A tight labour market with high inactivity isn’t just frustrating — it’s limiting our growth.

Lower business confidence and rising financial distress are further signs of strain. Begbies Traynor’s latest 'Red Flag Alert' report found there were 9,500 firms here in ‘early’ or ‘significant’ financial distress in early 2025 – a rise of nearly 6% on the same period in 2024. Companies in hotels and accommodation accounted for more than 50% of those in early financial distress. ‘Critical’ or more advanced business distress saw a slight uplift of just under 1% in the first three months of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, with 725 firms in this category.

Those figures on companies in distress were compiled before tariffs came to the fore so we need to add to the above a global context that’s anything but calm. The return of tariffs, and tariff talk is causing anxiety in boardrooms. With Donald Trump now back in the White House, trade policy has moved front and centre and is being played out in a seemingly never ending cycle of headlines, press conferences, and a combative approach that has global firms, including many here, watching nervously. In this febrile trading environment, Northern Ireland finds itself in a strangely enviable position. Thanks to the Windsor Framework, Northern Ireland now has a trade position that others would envy — access to both the UK and EU markets. It’s an advantage, yes. But it’s also a challenge to deliver on.

If the U.S. imposes fresh tariffs on EU goods, for example, where does that leave a Northern Ireland-based company trading into both blocs? If our local firms are embedded in wider UK or Irish supply chains, how do they navigate a policy landscape that might change overnight?

Our Top 100 Companies, featured in this publication, are in this exact position. These firms are not just local champions — they are international players. They trade, they export, they invest. They are the firms who feel trade tensions in real time. A tariff imposed in Washington can disrupt production in Belfast by the end of the week.

But lets try and remember that thanks to the post-Brexit arrangements, we are tethered to two major economic blocs at once: the UK and the EU. To quote Rishi Sunak, “that’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone”. Do we have the economic strategy, infrastructure, and confidence to play this trade environment to our advantage?

Under the Windsor Framework, Northern Ireland's trade profile is taking on a distinct shape and the numbers tell a story of momentum. In 2023, Northern Ireland businesses reported total sales of £97.6 billion. Of that, £64.3 billion — around two-thirds — were within the region itself. Sales to Great Britain accounted for £17.1 billion, and another £16.2 billion went to markets outside the UK. Importantly, that includes a £5.7 billion trade surplus — a not insignificant feat in today’s trade environment.

Cross-border trade with the Republic of Ireland is particularly striking. It hit £12.4 billion last year, a 26% jump from 2022. Northern Ireland’s exports southward totalled £8.7 billion, underscoring the reality that the all-island economy is not some abstract political notion but a living, breathing commercial fact.

Even trade in the other direction — from Great Britain into Northern Ireland — is growing fast. Imports reached £17.8 billion in 2023, another 26% increase. We brought in £3.1 billion in mineral fuels, £2.5 billion in motor vehicles, and £1.3 billion in pharmaceutical products. And across the Atlantic, our exports to the United States — now more than ever a wild card in global trade — totalled £1.9 billion, making the US our largest market after Great Britain and Ireland.

In other words: trade is happening. In some cases, booming. But what’s next?

In a world where trade alliances are being redefined, where protectionism is no longer the exception but the strategy, and where economic certainty is practically extinct, the time to go bold is now. That means stepping up export capacity, supporting more of our businesses to sell externally, and building deeper trade relationships in North America, Asia-Pacific, and emerging economies.

So while our own statistics tell a story of resilience, the global backdrop reminds us just how vulnerable that resilience can be. Our economic output may have increased by 3.6% over the year to the end of 2024, the question is how long can momentum continue if the external environment remains as uncertain as it is now?

That said, companies aren’t powerless. The organisations best placed to weather uncertainty are those investing now in adaptability — in skills, in digital infrastructure, in supply chain agility. These aren’t just nice-to-haves; they’re the shock absorbers that let businesses keep moving even when the road ahead is full sharp turns and economic potholes.