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Northern Ireland faces a wastewater crisis. New funding options could unlock vital housing, jobs, and environmental protections—if action is taken.
Contents
The economic context and past policy focus
In the early 2000s, I was part of a team that was asked to build an economic forecast model to make the case for a reduced corporate tax rate in Northern Ireland. I was told then it would be the most important thing I would work on in my career, such was the belief in the ‘game changing’ nature of the lower rate. Now, more than 20 years later, and a decade on from the legislation to secure a reduced level of Corporation Tax here, the idea seems to be gathering momentum again.
For years, cutting Northern Ireland’s Corporation Tax rate to match the Republic’s has been talked about as a potentially transformative lever, the last differentiator between them and us (at least before Brexit) and the one big move that many have hoped could kick-start the kind of private sector growth we’ve long struggled to achieve.
It’s a compelling idea: mirror the Republic’s low rate, attract global investment, and create the conditions for jobs and innovation to develop.
While I support the idea in principle, I’ve also developed a degree of pragmatic realism over the years. Any cut in Corporation Tax would come with a corresponding reduction in Northern Ireland’s block grant from HM Treasury, so we would need to be inventive about how we fund it.
Previous estimates put the shortfall in the hundreds of millions per year. In a fiscal context where every department is already under pressure - Health, Education, Infrastructure, you name it - that’s not money anyone can pretend we have lying around right now.
A new infrastructure challenge: NI Water’s shortfall
That brings me to a report my team and I in Grant Thornton have completed that might rival previous Corporation Tax work as being the most important work of my career.
At the request of the NI Chamber of Commerce, the Construction Employers Federation (CEF) and the Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations (NIFHA), I recently led a piece of work with Grant Thornton to explore the options for addressing a projected £2 billion funding gap in NI Water’s capital investment plan for the 2027 - 2033 period.
Without urgent reform, the system that underpins everything from new housing to environmental compliance is heading for a breakdown. Already, wastewater constraints have halted development in more than 20 towns across Northern Ireland. But this isn’t a crisis without options.
The most balanced funding solution
The most balanced scenario we modelled would see NI Water enabled to borrow the capital it needs and repay that over time through a ring-fenced infrastructure levy added to domestic and business rates. That would cost the average household around £96 a year.
It’s important to stress that this is an average. Those in lower-value properties would pay less, and those in higher-value homes would contribute more. Taking one example - the most deprived place in Northern Ireland, according to the Measure of Multiple Deprivation, is the Waterworks area of north Belfast. There, a typical house with a rates bill of between £500 and £600 would mean a wastewater levy of less than one pound per week.
Exploring other funding options
Our analysis also looked at placing the full burden of NI Water on consumers, removing the money that the Executive grants to NI Water. The result is an increase of nearly £800 per household.
In between those two poles, we explored a range of additional tools such as developer contributions, which could support delivery in some areas but risk undermining affordable and social housing schemes if applied too bluntly. A UK Government infrastructure ask, which would require cross-party support and strong negotiating capital. And more innovative models, such as Tax Increment Financing or a Regulated Asset Base, which offer long-term potential but would need serious legal and regulatory reform.
Political leadership and public choice
What links all of these options is this, they all demand honest political leadership and public engagement.
If we want the system to work, for homes, for jobs, for the environment, it looks like we are going to have to pay for it. But the sooner we act, the fairer and more affordable that fix will be. Our report did not recommend one route over another. What it does is provide an evidence base to support decisions that are long overdue.
Inaction has been the default choice for too long. The economic, social and environmental costs of that inaction are mounting.
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