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The Spring Statement from Chancellor Rachel Reeves was squarely aimed at retaining economic credibility in the face of worsening global economic conditions.
Contents
Fighting to retain economic credibility - the Chancellor’s Spring Statement
The chancellor tied herself to fiscal rules at the Autumn budget and had also promised no more tax increases. The economy has not been kind to the Chancellor and everything that could be blamed was – the previous government, geo-political tensions, trade wars, and higher interest rates all bore the brunt of the chancellors defensive positioning.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook has provided a sobering assessment of the UK’s economic prospects. The Chancellor’s Spring Statement responded to these challenges with a set of fiscal measures aimed at reclaiming the fiscal space to meet the fiscal rules.
UK Economic Growth and Fiscal Outlook
The OBR has halved its growth forecast for 2025, now predicting GDP expansion of just 1.0%, down from the previous 2.0% estimate. Their reasoning reflects ongoing global instability, including the impact of geopolitical tensions, disruptions to supply chains, and policy changes such as new U.S. import tariffs. Economic growth is expected to recover slightly in 2026 (1.9%), but uncertainty remains high.
With so much of our recent economic pain coming via inflation, particular attention is paid to where it is likely to go over the next year or so. According to the OBR, it is expected to rise to 3.2% in 2025 before gradually easing back to the 2% target.
In response to these economic challenges, the Chancellor’s Spring Statement set out a mix of measures, including:
Welfare Reform: A significant reduction in Universal Credit and incapacity benefit top-ups, expected to save £3.4bn. This move has sparked concerns over the impact on low-income households.
Defence Spending: An additional £2.2bn investment, reflecting the UK’s commitment to security in a changing global environment.
A leaner civil service: The chancellor holds a firm view that the civil service can be leaner and more agile. To that end she announced a voluntary exit scheme and investment in AI and other technology.
Tax Measures: As expected, the Spring Statement did not introduce any significant tax changes. The Chancellor’s main announcement was in relation to continued investment in tackling tax avoidance. This has been a regular feature in the last number of years and the announcement promised a further investment of £100 million for HMRC which is expected to bring about an additional £1bn in revenue as result.
Implications for Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland’s economy is particularly vulnerable to UK-wide fiscal changes, and several key concerns emerge from the OBR’s report and Spring Statement.
Public Spending Pressures: The NI Executive received a large financial settlement in the last budget. The Spring Statement has delivered almost nothing – just £14m. NI’s fiscal challenges are well documented and the focus on efficiency gains will take on even greater importance.
Welfare Cuts: Given that a higher proportion of Northern Ireland’s population relies on social security benefits, the proposed welfare reductions could have a disproportionate impact.
Overall, the OBR’s forecasts and the Chancellor’s policy response indicate a challenging period ahead for the UK and Northern Ireland. The chancellor set out to maintain economic and fiscal credibility. That looks like it has been achieved, but at significant cost to people on benefits. Also, with OBR cutting growth projections to 1% for this year, avoiding a Rachel Reeves Recession is far from certain.
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